【摘要】 运用统计学相关原理与数据挖掘的理论和方法,对电信套餐资费动态预演中新增客户量(新入网选择新套餐的客户)与转移客户量(网内转移至新套餐的客户)的预测展开研究。对于新增客户量,可基于相似套餐的历史数据进行时间序列法预测;对于转移客户量,可通过数据挖掘工具学习新套餐推出后用户选择的规则,由此预测转移客户量。最后,以某地市电信套餐为例进行实例分析,分别使用线性回归分析法与指数平滑法建立新增客户量预测模型,并对两种方法进行比较分析,使用数据挖掘中的决策树算法对客户转移规则进行挖掘。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the use of theories and methods of statistics and data mining,this paper researched the prediction method of the amount of the new customers(which take this new network service packages the first time) and the transfer customers(which have ever chosen the original network service packages).The amount of new customers could be predicted according to time series method based the historical data of a similar package,and the amount of transfer customers could be predicted with the finding to the rules of customer change service packages through data mining.Finally,a case study of a telecom operator was carried out in the paper.Linear regression analysis and exponential smoothing method were used and compared in the establishment of prediction model of amount of the new customers,and decision tree algorithm was used to find the rules of customer change service packages.更多还原