【摘要】 运用甘肃省冬小麦种植区西峰、天水农业气象试验站及平凉、成县农业气象观测站1981~2008年冬小麦试验田平均物候观测资料及试验点气象站1971~2008年逐日日照、温度、降水量测量值,建立了冬小麦日照、温度、降水及综合气候适宜度计算模型,并对1971~2008年冬小麦各生产年度气候适宜度动态变化进行了评价。结果表明:冬小麦全生育期温度、光照、降水及综合气候平均适宜度分别为0.77、0.66、0.50及0.60。温度和光照适宜性较高,降水是冬小麦生长发育的主要限制因子。在近40年中,温度和光照适宜度分别以0.001.a-1及0.0014.a-1线性趋势上升,降水适宜度以0.0013.a-1线性趋势下降。综合气候适宜度线性变化不明显。冬前生长阶段光照适宜性较强,降水适宜性较弱。越冬期降水适宜性较强,光照适宜性较弱。返青期~抽穗期及抽穗期~成熟期温度适宜性较强,降水适宜性较弱。冬前生长阶段及返青期~抽穗期,冬小麦温度、降水适宜度呈上升趋势,光照适宜度呈下降趋势,气候因子组合效果趋好。越冬期及抽穗期~成熟期温度、降水适宜度呈下降趋势,光照适宜度呈上升趋势,综合气候适宜性变差。冬小麦生长后期水分胁迫较大。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of winter wheat experimental field and meteorological data in Xifeng and Tianshui agrometeorological experiment stations and Pingliang and Chenxian agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2008,the models of climate suitability had been established.The dynamic variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2008 was evaluated.The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature,light,precipitation and synthesized climate were 0.77,0.66,0.50 and 0.60 respectively during the whole growth period of winter wheat.It is indicated that the temperature and light suitability degree increased by 0.001 and 0.0014 every year respectively and precipitation suitability degree decreased by 0.0013 every year from 1971 to 2008.The accumulated departure of temperature and precipitation suitability degree increased by 0.006 every year and accumulated departure of light suitability decreased by 0.0923 every year from sowing to stopping growing period in recent years.The accumulated departure of temperature decreased by 0.0254 every year and light suitability increased by 0.0139 every year during the overwinter period in recent years.The accumulated departure of temperature and light suitability decreased by 0.0497 and 0.0186 every year respectively from reviving to heading period in recent years.But the accumulated departure of precipitation increased by 0.0262 every year since 1971 and the meteorological condition was becoming better in this growth period.The accumulated departure of temperature and precipitation suitability degree decreased by 0.0031 and 0.016 every year and the accumulated departure of light suitability degree increased by 0.0637 every year during heading to mature period in recent years.The synthesized results of all climatic factors trended grim in this period.Precipitation was main limiting factors during the later growth period of winter wheat.We suggested that countermeasures for climate change should be modified in accordance with climate suitability in order to utilize climate resource effectively.更多还原