【摘要】 在气候变暖的背景下,依据中国东北地区101个气象站点多年逐日气象数据,利用数理统计分析方法,研究了东北地区1971~2007年春玉米生长季气候变化趋势,包括春玉米生长季平均气温、太阳辐射总量和降水量的变化趋势;利用GIS技术分析了东北地区春玉米光温生产潜力及气候生产潜力的时空变化。结果表明,东北地区春玉米生长季气温呈波动上升趋势,其幅度超过全国平均值,太阳辐射呈减少趋势,降水量年际变化较大,有波动下降趋势。在气温不断升高的情形下,东北地区春玉米的光温生产潜力有所增加,但由于各地区间降水的差异,东北地区春玉米的气候生产潜力在各地区变化差异较大,21世纪以来相对于20世纪70年代,南部地区气候生产潜力减少,而中部地区增加。为此,就如何利用东北地区春玉米生产潜力的特点,以及提高春玉米的实际产量提出了一系列建议措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of global warming,climate change including mean temperature,solar radia-tion and precipitation of spring Maize growth period,were studied in Northeast China using mathematical sta-tistics method based on daily data from 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2007.The light-temperature potential productivity and the climate potential productivity of spring maize were also analyzed using the geo-graphical information system(GIS) techniques in different areas and different times.It was showed that the mean temperature of spring Maize growth period went up in Northeast China,and the increase amplitude was larger than the national average.While the solar radiation was declining,and the precipitation showed a de-scending trend too.The light-temperature potential productivity of spring maize increased on the condition of elevated temperature.While the climate potential productivity of spring maize varied greatly because of the variation of precipitation in different areas.Compared to 1970s,in 2000s the climate potential productivity re-duced in the south but rose in the north.Some measures were proposed to make better use of the increase of potential productivity looking forward to a high spring maize yield.更多还原