【摘要】 用统计学的方法分析了用自相关分析法和改进的克里格插值法对中国地区电离层总电子含量(TEC)进行短期预报的预报误差。结果表明:预报误差的大小在地域上呈现出由北向南逐渐增大的趋势,时间上,在二分季节误差较大,误差日变化的峰值出现在午后。而相对误差则是在冬季最大,在夏季最小;相对误差的日变化为双峰结构,峰值出现的时间在8点和20点附近。从总体上看,在提前一小时预报中国地区电离层TEC时,相对误差为12%左右。通过统计对比单站预报和区域重构对最终预报误差的影响可以看出,单站预报误差起主要作用。因此,改进单站预报方法十分重要,可以有效地提高预报精度。同时,也需要增加并合理布局全球定位系统(GPS)接收台站。更多还原

【Abstract】 The prediction errors are statistically analyzed for the method of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC) short-term forecasting in China region.The results show that the prediction error rate gradually becomes larger from north to south China,and have the larger value in vernal and autumnal equinoxes.The diurnal variation of prediction errors has a single-peak at about 15:00.While the relative errors have the largest values in winter and the smallest values in summer,and exist two obvious peaks at around 8∶00 and 20∶00.Overall,the mean of the relative errors is about 12% with 1 hour in advance.At the same time,it can be found that the prediction error for the single station forecasting has larger proportion in the whole method by comparing it to the reconstruction error.Therefore,to improve the single station prediction is such an effective way to improve the accuracy of the whole method.In the meantime,it is necessary to increase and well distribute the GPS receiving stations.更多还原