【摘要】 发达市场对于保险周期的研究开展了二十多年,对于周期的存在性、影响因素及分析方法等已经形成了相对完整的理论和实证研究体系。在实证研究方面,Cumm ins-Outreville模型是使用最为广泛的二阶自回归分析模型。本文利用Cumm ins-Outreville模型及其扩展形式,以1991年至2009年的数据为基础,研究中国产险业保险周期的存在性,计算其周期长度在7.66至10.77年之间,并对影响保险周期的各种宏观和微观因素进行了检验。同时,还对本轮周期的发展趋势进行了分析判断。更多还原

【Abstract】 Insurance cycles in the developed markets have been studied for more than twenty years.The system of theoretical and empirical research,including the existence of the cycle,influence factors and analysis methods,has been established as well.This article used the Cummins-Outreville model,which was a typical autoregressive integrated moving average model,to analyze the insurance cycle in Chinese P&C insurance market based on data from 1991 to 2009.The main conclusion was that Chinese market existed an insurance cycle with length between 7.66 and 10.77 years,and some macro and micro factors influenced the cycle in various degrees.更多还原