【摘要】 以北京市浮动车数据为基础,对比2个工作日上午时段的交通拥堵时间百分比、持续时间特征指标,引入残存函数描述路段拥堵持续时间分布概率,采用曲线拟合后得到Log-Logistic模型可以更好地描述拥堵持续时间残存函数曲线,并对比不同路段的拥堵持续时间分布差异;此外,通过对比分析拥堵时段内速度的区间分布,得到拥堵前后时段交通状态的演变关系.通过对实际数据的具体分析直观说明交通拥堵时间维度的特征,以期为交通拥堵评估与预测奠定基础.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the Floating Car Data(FCD) in Beijing,this paper first compares temporal measurements for the morning periods of two workdays,i.e.,the time percentage of traffic congestion and the congestion duration.Then,it introduces the Survival Function to describe the congestion duration distribution,which is found after the curve fitting that it can be better described by the LogLogistic model.Further,it compares the congestion duration distributions on different links.In addition,through analyzing comparatively the speed interval distributions during congestion period,it derives the evolution relationship of traffic conditions between the before and after-congestion period.The paper provides directly the contents and methods on studying the temporal characteristics for traffic congestions through an analysis of real data,with an attempt to provide the foundation for the estimation and prediction of traffic congestions.更多还原