【摘要】 西北高山区寒区流域在全球变化背景下,河川径流发生了明显的变化,定量分析和评估径流变化对制定西部水资源可持续利用有着重要的意义.在VIC模型(含有冻土计算方案)的框架基础上,成功了耦合能量-物质平衡方案,改善了其在寒区冰川流域的水文过程模拟的效果.选择新疆阿克苏河流域作为研究区,验证表明改进后的模型取得比较理想的模拟结果.基于模拟的径流和观测数据,分析了阿克苏河两大支流径流组成及其变化特征.结果表明:1)托什干河冰川区径流占总径流的29.2%,昆马力克河冰川区径流占总径流的58.7%;2)两大支流总径流量近38a均呈增加趋势,托什干河径流增加了43.1%,平均年增加幅度为25.95×106 m3.a-1,昆马力克河径流增加13.1%,平均年增加幅度为14.09×106 m3.a-1;3)低冰川覆盖率的托什干河径流增加完全由于非冰川区径流的增加,高冰川覆盖率的昆马力克河径流增加是冰川区径流和非冰川区径流增加共同作用的结果,其中,总径流增加量中42%是来自于冰川区径流,58%来自于非冰川区径流.更多还原

【Abstract】 It is absolutely necessary to quantify the hydrological processes in earth surface by numerical models in the cold regions of Northwest China,where the runoff generation processes and total runoff amount changes apparently.Hydrological models became major tools for studying the hydrological cycle.However,these models have not considered the frozen soil or glacier hydrology,so they can not satisfy the hydrological process modeling in cold regions.The first purpose of this study is to couple energy balance and mass balance algorithm to the VIC model for improving model effect in cold and mountainous catchments.The improved VIC model simulations were performed in a large mountainous catchment in Aksu River basin in Northwest China.The modeled result showed a good agreement with the observed data.Based on the modeling hydrological data,the runoff components and their response to climate change were analyzed.It is found that: 1) Glacial meltwater recharged 29.2% of runoff for Toxkan River while 58.7% for Kumarik Like River.2) The annual runoff of the two branch of Aksu River showed an increasing trend,with an increase of about 43.1% for Toxkan River(increased by about 25.95×106 m3·a-1) and 13.1% for Kumarik Like River(increased by about 14.09×106 m3·a-1) during the late 38 years,respectively.3) The total runoff increasing in Toxkan River catchment(a smaller glaciation catchment) was entirely due to non-glacial runoff.The total runoff increasing in Kunmalike River catchment was result from both glacial runoff and increasing non-glacial runoff,of which 42% was from glacial runoff and 58% was from non-glacial runoff.更多还原