【摘要】 [目的]研究气候变暖背景下本溪地区温度降水变化特征。[方法]利用本溪地区4个常规气象站1953～2010年的月平均温度、降水资料,采用线性倾向率、线性拟合方程、小波分析和Mann-Kendall检测等数理统计方法,对气候变暖背景下该地区温度、降水变化特征进行分析。[结果]1953～2010年本溪地区年平均气温呈升高趋势,其线性倾向率为0.28℃/10a,四季均为增温趋势,冬季增温幅度最大,夏季最小;年降水量呈减少趋势,线性倾向率为-18.16 mm/10a,除春季呈略增加趋势外,其他各季均为减少趋势。Mann-Kendall突变检测表明,近58年来本溪地区年平均气温突变年出现在1986年,除夏季无突变现象发生外,春季突变年出现在1974年,秋季1987年为突变年,冬季突变年则出现在1981年;而年、季降水均没有突变现象出现。小波分析发现,近58年来本溪地区年平均气温存在12～14、5～6和2年周期变化,年降水量存在8～12、5～6和2年周期波动。[结论]该研究为山区气候资源开发和可持续发展提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Benxi area under the background of climate warming.[Method] Based on the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data of four routine meteorological stations in Benxi from 1953 to 2010,by using linear tendency rate,linear regression equation,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall detection,the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation as the climate warming in the area were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature in Benxi area during 1953-2010 presented the rising trend,and the linear tendency rate was 0.28 ℃/10a.It was the temperature increase trend in four seasons.The rising rate in winter was the maximum and was the minimum in summer.The annual rainfall presented the decrease trend,and the linear tendency rate was-18.16 mm/10a.Except in spring,it was the decrease trend in other seasons.Mann-Kendall mutation detection showed that the mutation of annual average temperature in Benxi area in recent 58 years appeared in 1986.There was no mutation phenomenon in summer.Spring mutation appeared in 1974,and autumn mutation appeared in 1987.Winter mutation was in 1981.The annual and seasonal precipitation didn’t have the mutation phenomenon.The wavelet analysis found that the annual average temperature had the periodic variations of 12-14,5-6 and 2 years in Benxi area in recent 58 years.The annual rainfall had the periodic fluctuations of 8-12,5-6 and 2 years.[Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the exploration and sustainable development of climate resources in the mountain area.更多还原