【摘要】 人类不恰当的经济活动是导致近百年来全球气候异常的主要原因,气候变化对人类社会和自然生态系统造成了较大的影响,如何应对全球变暖、减少温室气体排放是世界共同关注的问题。中国作为发展中大国,面临经济发展与温室气体减排的双重任务。在现有的生产模式下,经济增长必然带来温室气体排放的增加,即便采取低碳的生产生活方式,但是由于存在技术锁定效应,未来一段时间里,我国的温室气体排放将进一步增加。按照《巴厘路线图》安排,2009年底召开的联合国气候变化大会第十五次缔约方会议应该形成《京都议定书》第二承诺期的协议,但是大会并没有取得预期的成果。中国是世界温室气体第一排放大国,减排的压力很大。如何通过内外政策争取更多发展空间对我国的可持续发展至关重要。更多还原

【Abstract】 The global climate system has been changed dramatically since industrialization began,which has threatened the earth’s ecological system and human’s survival.The United Nations is appealing that the economic development model and people’s life way should change from high-carbon style to that of low-carbon.As a large developing country,China has the double tasks of economy increase and greenhouse gases reduction,but it is impossible to reduce the greenhouse gases emission while keeping economy increase sustainable under the current technology condition,even if we adopt the low-carbon technology now.The "lock-in" high-carbon technology will still exist for a short time,as decides China will increase greenhouse gases emission in the near future.The United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Fifteenth Meeting of the Parties,which will be hold at the end of this year,will discuss the future international climate system and the tasks of each country;it is most possible to ask China to assume some obligations of greenhouse gases emission reduction.As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases,China will be in dilemma if we can not work out some policy to deal with domestic and foreign affairs properly.更多还原