【摘要】 基于国家耕地警戒值,系统地研究大陆各省区的耕地警戒值及其指示作用,为国家耕地管理决策提供参考。设计了区域人均耕地警戒值的算法,计算31个大陆省区的耕地警戒值、耕地压力指数、耕地盈余/赤字量,构建利益驱动型的激励-约束耕保机制。结果表明:在不考虑人均食物消费支出的省区差异时,甘肃的人均耕地警戒值是湖南的7.78倍,北京的耕地压力是黑龙江的15.04倍,相反,在考虑人均食物消费支出的省区差异时分别为5.31倍和37.77倍,耕地警戒值和耕地压力有省区差异。结论是:全国耕地管理划分为3个激励-约束级,北京、上海、天津和广东4个省(市)为耕地管理的强力约束级,山西、浙江、福建、西藏、陕西、青海和辽宁7个省(区)为一般约束级,其余20个省区为政策性激励级,国家应制定差异性的耕地管理激励-约束政策;北京、天津、上海、浙江、福建、广东、山西、陕西、西藏、青海和辽宁等11个省区,用于生产食物的耕地有不同程度的赤字,其他20个省区有耕地盈余,提出构建国家粮食-生态安全金的省区差异性分担制度的政策性建议,以抑制耕地赤字省区的耕地继续减少行为和激励耕地盈余省区的耕地保护行为。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the alert values of cultivated land in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities of China’s mainland,based on the national warning values of cultivated land,with the aim to provide reference for national land management decision-making.The warning values of arable land at provincial levels vary greatly.On the basis of differences in the pressure index,cultivated land pressures in major provinces in China were analyzed in detail in order to build the interest-driven mechanism for arable land protection with incentives-constraint.The major regional coefficients were designed accordingly.An algorithm for quantifying the alert values of per capita arable land and examining regional differences in farmland alert values in 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities was used in this analysis.The pressure index of cultivated land,and the farmland surplus or deficit were calculated to understand the Red Line of arable land protection given by government.Results showed that there were marked differences in the warning values of the arable land without taking into account differences in food consumption expenditure in each province.In terms of the warning values of the arable land,Hunan Province was the smallest and Gansu Province was the largest.As for the pressure index of the cultivated land,Heilongjiang was the smallest and Beijing was the largest.Without accounting for differences in consumption,the warning value of the arable land in Gansu was found to be 7.78 times more than that in Hunan.The pressure index of the cultivated land in Beijing was estimated to be 15.04 times more than that in Heilongjiang.But the warning value of the arable land under the condition of taking differences in consumption into consideration in Gansu was 5.31 times more than that in Hunan.The pressure index of the cultivated land in Beijing was 37.77 times more than that in Heilongjiang.It can be drawn that the pressures from the cultivated land in light of the warning values of the arable land at the provincial level vary greatly.In terms of the pressure differences,a land incentives-constraint management at different levels was pointed out.Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin and Guangdong were the strong constraint level province and municipalities in farmland management.Shanxi,Zhejiang,Fujian,Tibet,Shaanxi,Qinghai,and Liaoning were under a general constraint level.The others were taken as policy-encouraging provinces in arable management.In terms of the arable land demand for food production,farmland deficit provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities involve Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong,Shanxi,Shaanxi,Tibet,Qinghai,and Liaoning,showing varying magnitudes of deficits.The others were farmland surplus provinces.Based on the surplus or deficit of arable land,where farmland was utilized to produce food,national FoodEcological Security payments paid by provinces and autonomous regions and the transfer-payment system regulated by governments should be built to prevent the arable land from consistently decreasing in these deficit provinces and to stimulate protection of cultivated land in those surplus provinces.更多还原