【摘要】 耕地保护是保证区域社会经济可持续发展的基础所在,保护的程度不够会危及到粮食安全、社会稳定,保护过度又会影响到建设用地的供给。选择合理的耕地保护目标,成为了一个亟待解决的问题。论文在系统研究耕地保护的影响因素,以及耕地与其他各类用地关系的基础上,构建了情景-多目标规划模型(SMOP)。以浙江省为例,通过模型的运算,得出了不同情景模式下耕地的保有量。结果表明,8个情景模式中,只有情景B和F求出了最优解(低人口增长水平、生存用粮自给、较高的粮食单产水平情景以及高人口增长水平、生存用粮自给、较高的粮食单产水平情景)。通过进一步分析,其他情景模式无法得出最优解的原因是耕地需求超过了耕地供给能力。也就是说在其他情景模式下,耕地均存在一定的缺口,粮食安全受到了不同程度的威胁。情景G(高人口增长水平、营养用粮自给、稳定的粮食单产水平情景)的耕地缺口数和耕地压力指数最大。浙江省必须从挖掘耕地生产潜力以及建立健全粮食市场入手才能实现经济发展和粮食安全的双赢。SMOP模型能够较好地体现系统的复杂性和不确定性,其结果真实地反映了浙江省的资源禀赋和未来的发展可能。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cultivated land protection is a foundation of socio-economic sustainable development in regional area.The food security and social stability would be endangered in case of over-protecting.In the opposite case the economic development land would be lack of supply.The urgent problem is to reasonably choose a target of cultivated land protection.Considering the uncertain influencing factors and complex relationship between cultivated land and other types of land,the scenario-multi-object programming(SMOP) is applied in the paper.A case study of Zhejiang Province which is one of the most developed provinces in China is taken to calculate the total area of cultivated land by this model in different scenarios.The GDP of Zhejiang Province was 4th in China in 2005 and the cultivated area per capita less than half of China.Thus it can be seen that the confliction of the people and the land is very sharp in Zhejiang Province.The result of the study shows,in all of the eight scenarios,the scenario B(low population growth,grain for existence self-sufficiency and the high level grain yield) and scenario F(high population growth,grain for existence self-sufficiency and the high level grain yield) get an optimal solution.For the optimum aim of integrated benefit,the amount of cultivated land reserved are 1670623 hm2 and 1735957 hm2 in Zhejiang Province in different scenarios.Further analysis indicated the reason is the demand for cultivated land overflow the supply capability of cultivated land that the other scenarios can’t get the optimal solution.In other words,the amount of cultivated land has a certain degree of scarcity which will threaten the food security.In the scenario G(high population growth,grain for nutrition self-sufficiency and the stable level of grain yield) the lack of quantity and the pressure index of cultivated land are the largest.In this scenario,the cultivated land resources of Zhejiang Province can provide 27.31% of the demand to cultivated land.To guarantee food security and economic development,there are two approaches that must be taken.One is to improve grain yield,the other is to set up a firm grain market in Zhejiang Province.The model of SMOP can reflect the system’s uncertainty and complexity,the result of calculation truely reflects the resource endowment and possible future development in Zhejiang Province.更多还原