【摘要】 【目的】考察改良陆稻技术采用对农户收入的影响,以促进农业技术的创新与进步。【方法】为解决传统方法分析农业技术效应时农户技术采用"自选择"而带来的因果干涉问题,引入非参数的倾向得分匹配法,利用滇西南山区8县16村2000年、2002年和2004年473个农户调查数据,评估改良陆稻技术采用对山区农户收入的效应。【结果】利用倾向得分匹配法分析,改良陆稻技术采用户的收入在2000年、2002年和2004年分别是非采用情况下的1.49、1.34和1.23倍。利用描述性统计分析方法,以上3个年份中技术采用户的收入分别是非采用户的1.79、1.49和1.27倍。【结论】改良陆稻技术的采用对农户的收入提高具有稳健的正向效应。在考察的年份里,技术采用的效应呈现递减趋势。与倾向得分匹配法相比,一般描述性统计分析会高估技术采用的效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Objective】 This paper investigated the effects of improved upland rice technology on rice farmers’ income,and helped promoting agricultural technological innovation and progress.【Method】 In solving the "cause and effect" problem that the conventionally-used descriptive statistical methods may suffer,this paper,by employing the non-parametric Propensity Score Matching(PSM) method,assessed the effects of improved upland rice technology on rice farmers’ income,based on the field survey of 473 farm households in 16 villages in 8 counties in southwestern Yunnan during the periods of 2000,2002 and 2004.【Result】 Using PSM,incomes of these farm households who adopted improved upland rice technology were 1.49 times,1.34 times and 1.23 times of the situation that did not adopt in 2000,2002 and 2004,respectively.Using the usually-used descriptive statistical methods,incomes of those farm households who adopted were 1.79 times,1.49 times and 1.27 times of those who did not adopt,respectively.【Conclusion】 The improved upland rice technology had positive and robust effects on upland rice farmers’ income increase.However,the effects were showing a diminishing trend during the periods concerned.Furthermore,compared with the PSM method,the usually-used descriptive statistical methods were likely to overestimate the effects of technology adoption.更多还原