【摘要】 应对气候变化对种植结构的影响,已成为农业生产面对的新课题。作者利用内蒙古武川县1961—2006年间气象观测数据以及1949—2006年5个主要作物种类(小麦、莜麦、荞麦、马铃薯、油料)的粮食生产统计资料,以典型相关分析方法对1961—2006年间粮食单产与气候变化之间的响应特征进行分析。研究结果显示,气候变暖是武川气候变化的主要特征,气温变化趋势对油料作物和马铃增产有利,对荞麦和莜麦生产不利。依据1949—2006年间武川县5种主要作物种植面积的变化情况,利用2000—2006年间5个作物种类的产出以及种植面积变化阈值进行线性规划,5种作物优化种植面积比例为小麦:莜麦:荞麦:马铃薯:油料=1.1616∶0.4359∶0.1930∶4.7513∶3.4582。规划后种植结构不仅可以满足市场供应与居民生活所需,也能够适应气候变暖形势,有利于提高当地气候资源的利用效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 It had been a new problem for agriculture to reply climate changing effect on planting structure. Based on data of meteorological observation in 1961 to 2006 and agricultural statistics(from 1949 to 2006) of five main crops(wheat,naked oats,buckwheat,potato and oil crop) at Wuchuang county in Inner Mongolia, characteristics of grain-production responding to climate effect were analyzed with method of canonical correlation analysis.Climate warming was a critical aspect of climate changing at Wuchuan county,and that was advantageous to production of potato and oil crop in local area,and disadvantageous to naked oats and buckwheat.Based on this,linear programming model had been built up according to crop yields and planting area dynamic in 2000 to 2006.Planting proportion optimized for five crops was"wheat:naked oats: buckwheat:potato:oil crop = 1.1616:0.4359:0.1930:4.7513:3.4582".Planting structure had being programmed was good at supply to both needs of market and resident life,and could adapted to climate warming for good utilization on climate resources.更多还原