【摘要】 以兰州为中心的黄河沿岸地区在甘肃乃至西北地区发展中的战略地位重要。通过构建水资源承载力(WRCC)的系统动力学模型,模拟多变量在不同参数组合下的可能情景。结果表明:农田灌溉、节水技术、非农产业规模和生态用水几个变量对WRCC的影响较大;4种典型的情景方案各有利弊,协调发展型的情景方案是可行的选择。在此情景下,2020年区域虽可实现全面小康的目标,但内部差异大,依然存在温饱、宽裕、初步小康和全面小康4种生活水平。区域将在2021年出现缺水,影响未来的发展。因此建议:进一步统筹城乡发展,大力应用节水技术,除了加快在建的"引洮工程"外,还应积极筹划"南水北调西线工程"的建设。更多还原

【Abstract】 The region along the Yellow River in Gansu Province has an important strategic position in Gansu Province as well as Northwest China.Through modeling water resources carrying capacity(WRCC),the possible scenarios are simulated when several variables change under different parameter combinations.The results show that 4 variables cropland irrigation,water-saving technology,the scale of non-agricultural industries and ecological water affect the WRCC greatly;each scenario has its own advantages and disadvantages among four typical scenarios discussed,the most favorable option is the coordinated development scenario.In this scenario,the goal of living a well-to-do life may be attained in the region in 2020,but there are huge differences in the region.4 living standards(a life with adequate food and clothing,a relatively rich life,a well-to-do life and a universal well-to-do life) still exist.Water shortage will appear in 2021 and impact the future development.Therefore,we need to keep a balance between the urban development and rural development;plan actively the construction of "Western Route Project for Transferring Water from Southern to Northern China" besides speeding up the construction of "Tao River Diversion Project".更多还原