【摘要】 养老保险隐性债务是现收现付制养老金制度的固有特征;养老保险隐性债务的显性化问题是源于现收现付制养老保险向基金制的转轨。养老保险制度的转轨成本源于隐性债务,但在量上并不等于隐性债务,只有在制度转轨过程中显性化出来的那部分隐性债务才是转轨成本。中国养老保险制度改革的目标是部分基金制,因而只是部分旧制度下的隐性债务会显性化。隐性债务的显性化是一个复杂的动态变化过程,作者用系统动力学的方法进行模拟测算,得出中国未来各期的政府清偿隐性债务的估测量值,以供决策部门参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Implicit pension debt is an inherent feature in pay-as-you-go pension system.The explicitness of implicit pension debt as a problem is due to the transition of pension insurance from pay-as-you-go pension system to funded system.Though the conversion cost of pension insurance comes from the implicit pension debt,its amount is only the explicit part of the implicit pension debt.The goal of the pension insurance system reform in China is to establish a partly funded system,so only part of the implicit pension debt will be explicit.The explicitness of implicit pension debt is a complicated dynamic process.This paper uses system dynamics simulation to estimate the implicit pension debt in the coming years and draws some implications to policy decisions.更多还原