【摘要】 相关计算表明,位于塔克拉玛干沙漠西北边缘沙漠绿洲山地过渡带的阿克苏河流域英阿特河树轮标准化年表与该区域4—7月的沙尘天气日数相关显著,单相关系数高达-0.527(α<0.0001),利用树木年轮重建阿克苏河流域历史时期沙尘天气日数是可行的,并具有明显的树木生理学意义。利用吾力街力克和英阿特河标准化自回归年表序列可较好地重建阿克苏气象站过去611a的4—7月沙尘天气日数,经多方面验证,表明其具有较好的可信性。在过去611a中,阿克苏河流域沙尘天气日数以2.3a、4.1a、5a、6.8a、8.8a、10.7a、45.1a、50.7a的周期最为显著;且经历了9个偏湿期及9个偏干期,降水的增加有利于制约沙尘天气的发生,在新疆气候暖湿化的背景下,沙尘天气有望减少;阿克苏河流域历史时期沙尘天气日数在1434年前后、1721年前后、1776年前后和1865年前后发生了由少向多突变,在1685年前后、1752年前后和1798年前后发生了由多向少的突变。这些突变年份中,1721年前后的由少到多突变最为显著,1752年前后的由多到少突变最为显著。17、18世纪沙尘天气较为频繁,15—17世纪,沙尘天气日数明显增加,18—20世纪,呈下降趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 The relationship between tree-ring standardized autoregressive chronologies and sand-dust days from April to July in Aksu River Basin was significant with the correlation coefficients high up to -0.527(α<0.0001). Tree-ring standardized autoregressive chronologies were used to reconstruct the sand-dust days data series from April to July in Aksu River Basin during the recent 611 years based on tree-ring samples collected in YAT and WLJ sampling plots in Aksu River Basin. Analyzing results are as follows. The variation of sand-dust days from April to July in Aksu River Basin during the past 611 years had periods of 2.3 a, 4.1 a, 5 a, 6.8 a, 8.8 a, 10.7 a, 45.1 a and 50.7 a. The abrupt change of sand-dust days happened in year 1434, 1685, 1721, 1752, 1776, 1798 and 1865. There were nine frequent-occurrence stages and nine less-occurrence stages of sand-dust days. There was a negative correlation between the sand-dust days and the precipitation because the precipitation can restrain the occurrence of sand-dust.更多还原