【摘要】 利用焦作市1980-2005年小麦白粉病发生程度资料和气候资料,采用次序统计量方法和Bayes判别准则,确定小麦白粉病等级与当地气候指标的定量关系,建立预测模型,得出模型中关键气象因子指标为:(1)前一年10月平均气温(T10)≥16.5℃;(2)当年3月气温(T3)≤9.5℃;(3)前一年8、9、10月降水量之和(R8+R9+R10)≤180mm;(4)当年3月降水量(R3)≥25mm。当模型中有3个或4个指标满足,则小麦当年可能发生重度白粉病;当没有或只有1个指标满足,则不会发生小麦白粉病。对1980-2005年该地区小麦白粉病发生状况进行模拟和预报,历史拟合率达73%以上,2006年和2007年延伸预测结果与实际一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the information of intensity of wheat powdery mildew and climate in Jiaozuo during 1980 and 2005,the quantitative relationship between wheat powdery mildew levels and the local climate indicators was identified by means of order statistical and Bayes criterion,and a prediction model was established.Four factors for prediction model were:(1)the average temperature of October last year(T10)≥16.5℃,(2)the temperature of March this year(T3) ≤9.5℃,(3)the sum of rainfall in August,September and October last year(R8+R9+R10)≤180mm,(4)the rainfall of March this year(R3)≥25mm.A severe wheat powdery mildew disaster would take place if 3 or 4 factors were met at the same time,and the disaster would not happen if non or only 1 factor was met.The historical matching rate for the forecast results was over 88% during the 1980-2005.The forecasted results were in line with the factual records of 2006 and 2007.更多还原