【摘要】 目的建立初治涂阳肺结核治愈后近期复发的预测模型。方法采用前瞻性追踪研究方法,对2005年1月1日—2006年12月31日广州市初治涂阳肺结核治愈停药的3 293例患者进行2年随访研究,从临床因素、社会因素探讨影响初治涂阳肺结核治愈后复发的相关因素,建立近期复发的logistic回归模型。结果初治涂阳肺结核治愈后细菌学复发率为4.6%。近期复发预测模型:logitP=-9.546+0.586X1+1.959X6+1.449X10+1.118X15+1.027X16+1.525X18+0.674X22+2.042X23,经评价预测效果较好。结论预测模型的建立为减少肺结核复发提供了科学循证依据,能为结核病疫情控制给予针对性指导。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To establish a prediction model of short-term recurrence of cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods This research was a prospective longitudinal study.3 293 cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases from Jan.2005 to Dec.2006 from Guangzhou City were followed-up for 2 years.Influencing factors of recurrence of cured initial-smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis were explored from clinical and social aspects and a logistic regression model for prediction were developed. Results The bacteriology recurrence rate is 4.6%.Short-term recurrence prediction model is logit P=-9.546+0.586X1+1.959X6+1.449X10+1.118X15+1.027X16+1.525X18+0.674X22+2.042X23 with good prediction results. Conclusions The prediction model provided a scientific evidence-based basis to reduce the recurrence of tuberculosis and a targeted instruction for the control of tuberculosis epidemic.更多还原