【摘要】 FreeBSD内核进化有较明显的超线性趋势和内在规律.科学地预测软件进化,找到一种简易又有足够精度的预测方法是管理软件工程的一项重要基础性工作.以FreeBSD的62个内核版本数据作为时间序列,用AR IMA模型建模,并做出FreeBSD进化预测,将预测结果和近期发布的FreeBSD内核进化实际结果进行对比,预测结果令人满意,表明该类模型可以用于FreeBSD进化预测.更多还原

【Abstract】 There are the more visible in the evolution of the ultra-linear trends,as well as obvious intrinsic rules,in the FreeBSD kernel evolution.Predict the software evolution scientifically is an important basic work to management of software engineering,and need an forecasting method with easier to use and having sufficient pricision.To FreeBSD kernel version of the 62 time-series data,using ARIMA modeling and forecasting to make FreeBSD evolution,The forecast results and the recent release of FreeBSD kernel compared the evolution of actual results,the results are satisfactory,that the type of model can be used to predict the evolution of FreeBSD.更多还原