【摘要】 根据新疆奎屯气象站1961—2008年的气候资料,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对近48 a的年平均气温、无霜期、≥0℃活动积温、≥10℃活动积温、日照时数、降水量、潜在蒸散量和蒸降差等农业气候要素的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:(1)近48 a奎屯垦区年平均气温呈上升趋势;≥0℃活动积温与≥10℃活动积温增加;年日照时数减少;年降水量略增;年潜在蒸散量和年蒸降差显著减少。(2)奎屯垦区年平均气温于1972年以来发生了极显著的突变性升高,无霜期于1969年发生了较显著的突变性延长;≥0℃活动积温和≥10℃活动积温于1975年分别发生了显著的突变性增多;年日照时数于1983年发生了极显著的突变性减少;年潜在蒸散量和蒸降差分别于1984年和1983年发生了极显著的突变性减小,但年降水量未发生突变。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the climate data during 1961—2008 from Kuitun meteorological station,the fundamental variation characteristics of various agricultural climatic elements such as temperature,frost-free period,annual accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10℃,hours of sunshine,precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and the difference between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation in Kuitun reclamation area in resent 48 years were analyzed by methods of linear regression and Mann-Kendall mutation detection.The main results are as follows:(1)The annual mean temperature,the frost-free period,the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ are increasing,the annual sunshine hours,the potential evapotranspiration and the difference between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation are decreasing obviously.(2)The annual mean temperature had discontinuous ascension in 1972,the frost-free period was discontinuous extension in 1969,and the annual accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ had discontinuous increase in 1984 and 1983 respectively.Meanwhile,the hours of sunshine had discontinuous decrease in 1983,the potential evapotranspiration and the difference between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation had discontinuous decrease in 1984 and 1983 respectively,but annual precipitation did not arise mutation.更多还原