【摘要】 入库流量的准确预测是水电站发电的基础。针对大型水库入库流量的不确定性,提出对水电站入库流量的随机模拟方法。将入库流量看成是一个随机过程,采用逐步回归与自回归综合方法对入库流量时间序列趋势项、周期项、平稳项进行了分析,并增加随机项来描述入库流量的随机变化。以广西某个水电站为实例进行了计算分析,通过与历史真实数据进行对比,验证得到采用逐步回归与自回归组合模型模拟随机入库流量序列具有较高的拟合度和可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The accurate prediction of reservoir inflow is the foundation of power generation in hydropower station.According to uncertainty of reservoir inflow,a stochastic simulation method is proposed in this paper.Reservoir inflow is treated as a random process,composite method of stepwise regression and autoregression is used to analyze trend term of time sequence,periodic term and stationary term of reservoir inflow,and random component is added to describe its random variation.Taking case of a hydropower station in Guangxi,it is verified that the combined model of stepwise regression and autoregression has a high fitting degree and feasibility to simulate random reservoir inflow sequence by comparing with historical real data.更多还原