【摘要】 目的探索自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)在流感症状监测中的应用。方法采用ARIMA对珠海市近4年的流感样病例监测数据进行逐月分析。结果 ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12能够很好的拟合珠海市流感样病例的发病情况。结论利用ARIMA预测流感样病例的发病情况是合适的,可以为地区常见传染病防制和公共卫生决策提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model in the monitoring of influenza symptoms.Methods ILI monitoring data of Zhuhai City in recent 4 years were tested to analyze monthly by ARIMA model.Results ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12 model could be as a good model for influenza-like illness.Conclusions ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of influenza-like illness and provide scientific methods for infectious disease control and public health decision-making.更多还原