【摘要】 基于面板数据的协整和误差修正模型,考察了工业品贸易、地区专业化与就业增长的关系。实证分析表明,在东部,工业品进出口、地区专业化、国有经济比重、重工业化趋势等变量与工业产出、工资及就业之间存在长期均衡关系,工业品出口、重工业化趋势促进了就业总量的增长,工业品进口、专业化水平及国有经济比重则对就业增长呈现负效应;在短期,工业品进出口、专业化水平、国有经济成分有利于熨平就业波动,而重工业化趋势则对就业波动存在正向冲击。但是,在中西部地区不存在这样的短期因果关系,各变量间的长期均衡关系也不稳健。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article tests whether trade of manufactured goods, regional specialization, heavy-industrialization are empirically related to manufacturing employment levels across Chinese regions during the period 1997～2005. Using the unit root tests, cointegration tests and error correction models in panel data,the empirical results show the obvious difference in eastern and midwestern region of China: a long-term relation and a short-term causality are founded in eastern region,but there is not both a longterm relation or a short-term causality in mid-western region.更多还原