【摘要】 基于苏州市水资源现状,从维持和保护河网生态系统正常的基本功能角度出发,在保证生态环境需水的条件下,构建了水资源与社会、经济、生态环境相联系的苏州市水资源承载力系统动力学模型。以社会经济指标为表征,分别在不同水资源方案(现状延续型、节水型、开源型3种方案)下,依据"以供定需"原则,模拟了2001~2030年苏州市水资源承载力的动态变化,得出不同水平年苏州市水资源承载能力,据此寻求提高苏州市水资源承载力的途径。结果表明,节水措施对水资源承载力影响大,是提高水资源承载力的有力措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the current situation of water resources in Suzhou City and aiming to maintain and protect the normal basic functions of river net eco-system,a dynamic model related with water resources,society,economy and ecosystem was established to evaluate water resources carrying capacity in Suzhou City by ensuring eco-environmental water demand.Characterizing with the factor of social economy,the dynamic variations of the water resources carrying capacity in Suzhou was simulated with the rule of "Demand is based on Supplying" for the time period from 2001 to 2030 under the conditions of different water resources schemes(Type I:remaining current water utilization;Type II: water conservation;Type III: water exploitation).The corresponding water resources carrying capacity over years was calculated out by the model,and proper ways to improve the carrying capacity were consequently proposed.The research results in this paper show that the water conservation policy can highly affect water resources carrying capacity and be an efficient approach to improve the capacity.更多还原