【摘要】 传统可靠性方法利用概率论和模糊理论处理结构不确定因素.应用非概率凸集模型处理结构的不确定性,结合有限元分析,通过结构材料不确定参数的区间运算,得到坝体单元的非概率可靠度指标.考虑坝体初始开裂位置的随机性,根据非概率可靠度指标最小单元依次破坏的准则来搜索拱坝所有可能的失效模式,得出各种可能失效模式下拱坝非概率可靠度指标的最小值即为拱坝的非概率可靠度.综合拱坝各种失效模式可以更合理准确地评价拱坝的安全度.更多还原

【Abstract】 In assessing structural safety probability,fuzzy theories are always used as a traditional reliability method to deal with uncertainties of structure.The non-probability and the convex set models are applied to the process of structural uncertainties,and the nou-probability reliability index of dam elements is obtained by interval arithmetic of uncertain parameters in combination with a finite element analysis in this study.Considering randomness of dam intial cracking position and based on the idea that the smallest element of the non-probability reliability index will fail one by one,it is found that the minimum of the arch dam non-probability reliability index is the arch dam non-probability reliability index in all probable failure mode cases.It can give a more reasonable and accurate safety evaluation of arch dams by analysis of all possible failure modes.更多还原