【摘要】 本文基于改进后的经济景气分析系统、宏观经济监测预警信号系统和STR等多种经济计量模型,对2010年的经济形势进行了分析和预测。预计2010年经济增长可能达到10%。1999年以来,物价随景气状况的改变呈现出状态转换的非线性变动特征。CPI从2009年4季度开始进入新一轮物价上涨周期,预计2010年CPI上涨3.2%,出现温和通货膨胀,但从2010年4季度开始物价上涨压力有望逐渐减缓。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we analyze and forecast the economic situations in 2010 based on the improved business cycle analysis system,macroeconomic monitoring and early warning system and the STR model.The conclusions show that economic growth has been in the expansion phase of this business cycle since the second quarter of 2009 and approaches the first peak of minor cycle around March in 2010; The CPI has been in the rising phase of this cycle since the forth quarter of 2009 and the phase will last about one year; The annual CPI is expected to rise by around 3.2% which is a moderate inflation level.更多还原