【摘要】 运用系统动力学原理,在全面分析济南市水资源承载力系统的基础上,建立了水资源承载力系统动力学模型,模拟了在自然延续型、经济发展型、节水型、协调发展型4种方案下济南市2001～2020年水资源承载力的动态变化。结果表明,协调发展型方案是提高济南市水资源承载力,保证社会、经济与环境协调发展的最可行方案,该方案下模拟的2020年济南市水资源可承载的工业总产值和城镇人口分别为4 989.21亿元和515.55万人。更多还原

【Abstract】 By use of the theories of system dynamics, a SD model for the carrying capacity of water resources was established through the comprehensive analysis of the system of water resources carrying capacity in Jinan City. The dynamic changes of the carrying capacity of water resources in Jinan City from 2001 to 2020 were simulated under the 4 kinds of schemes: natural continuation type, economic development type, water-saving type and harmonious development type. The results show that the harmonious development type is the most feasible one to raise the carrying capacity of water resources and to ensure the harmonious development of society, economy and environment in Jinan City. The gross industrial output value and urban population in 2020 in Jinan City under this scheme will be 498.921 billion RMB Yuan and 5155500, respectively.更多还原