【摘要】 本文采用IAPⅢ模式输出的10模式年资料,计算了夏季风建立期间的流场能量强度指数(即变差度、相似度、场比幅、季风强度指数和突变度),主要结论有:利用相似度可客观确定模式中南海夏季风建立的预兆日期。在南海、南亚夏季风建立及江淮入梅前后,均出现全球变差度明显增大,此时大气环流的剧烈调整具有全球性。IAPⅢ模式中南海夏季风爆发要较实际偏晚10 d,强度也较实际弱。虽在模式中海表面温度取气候值,但南海夏季风建立的预兆日期仍各不相同,且季风强度指数有明显的呈两年周期的变化。模式中南海夏季风爆发在绝大多数年份仍属突变过程,这与实际情况大体相当。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the intensity index of current energy,which comprises flow variation-index,flow similarity-index,quotient of flow amplitudes,monsoon intensity index and flow abrupt-index,is calculated using the data,which is the output of AGCM IAPⅢ.Main conclusions are:Flow similarity-index can objectively determine the presage day of summer monsoon onset in South China Sea region.Near the day of summer monsoon onset in South China Sea region and South Asia region,and near the day of beginning of Meiyu in the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River,the flow variation-index increase distinctly,it means that there is violent adjustment of global circulation.Climatically,the day of summer monsoon onset in South China Sea region in the model is later 10 d than real day of the onset,the onset intensity is weaker.In the model,although SST is climatic value,the presage day of summer monsoon onset in South China Sea region is different,and monsoon intensity index has distinct interannual variability of biennial oscillation.Summer monsoon onset in South China Sea region in the model belongs to almost abrupt change,which is consistent with reality.更多还原