【摘要】 文章运用GTAP模型和Walmsley等递归动态法,针对中国—印度自由贸易区的构建,以及在此基础上动态扩展的泛东亚其他三种区域合作方案,就成员国GDP、福利水平、贸易规模、贸易结构等产生的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟分析。研究表明,区域经济合作将极大改进世界总福利水平,但由于各成员国产业竞争力的差异以及在既有的贸易安排中地位的不同,各自在利益分配上出现不均衡性;尽管各FTA方案均对成员国的进出口有着积极的促进作用,但促进效果各有不同,在进口与出口上显现出非对称性,表现为进口增长快于出口增长。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper is an attempt to use the GTAP model and the dynamic recursive method to analyze the economic effects of four FTA scenarios in Pan-East Asian integration.It mainly involves GDP,trading scale,bilateral trade,national welfare,and trade structure.As the result indicates,due to different industrial competitiveness as well as the status in trade arrangements,there exists unbalanced distribution of benefits among its member states.According to the author,China has to make its policy choice aimed at maximizing its own interest considerations and balancing the influence of other major member states in participating in the FTA program.更多还原