【摘要】 目的分析气候因素对蚊虫密度的影响,为蚊虫介导传染病的监测和防控提供科学依据。方法将1995-2002年广州市主要城区人工小时捕蚊数监测资料与同期的月平均气压、月平均气温、月平均相对湿度、月平均绝对湿度、月平均蒸发量、月平均降雨量、月日照时间、月平均风速等气候资料进行等级相关和多元回归分析。结果广州市在连续7年里人工小时捕蚊总数(包括多种蚊虫)即总蚊虫密度与同期的蒸发量、相对湿度、绝对湿度、日照、温度、降雨量均呈正相关关系(P<0.05),而与气压有负相关关系(P<0.05);而人工小时捕获白纹伊蚊数即白蚊伊蚊密度与同期的蒸发量、相对湿度、日照、温度、降雨量均呈正相关关系(P<0.05),与气压呈负相关关系(P<0.05)。在回归分析中,对人工小时捕蚊总数有影响的仅绝对湿度一个因素,复相关系数为0.835,决定系数为0.697;而对人工小时捕获白纹伊蚊数有影响的因素为日照、绝对湿度和温度,复相关系数为0.850,决定系数为0.723。结论绝对湿度对总蚊虫密度有明显的影响,日照、绝对湿度和温度对白纹伊蚊密度有明显影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To demonstrate the correlation between mosquito density and climatic factors so as to provide scientific evidence for monitoring and preventing mosquito-borne infectious disease.Methods The relationship between mosquito surveillance data and climate variables in Guangzhou from 1995 to 2002 year were analyzed by using rank correlation and multiple regression.Results There was a positive correlation between the total number of mosquito captured(including several strains) per hour,or total mosquito density,and homeochronous evaporation capacity,relative humidity,absolute humidity,sunshine,temperature,precipitation(P<0.05),but a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure(P<0.05).There was a positive correlation between Aedes albopictus density and homochronous evaporation capacity,relative humidity,sunshine,temperature,precipitation(P<0.05).but a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure(P<0.05).Stepwise regression was used to screen main climatic factors of influencing mosquito density.For total number mosquito captured,only absolute humidity could enter the regression equation.Correlation coefficient of the regression model was 0.835,and coefficient of determination 0.697.For Aedes albopictus density,sunshine,absolute humidity and temperature could enter the regression equation.Correlation coefficient of the regression model was 0.850,and coefficient of determination 0.723.Conclusion Mosquito density is affected by a variety of climatic factors.Absolute humidity is the only factor influencing total mosquito density;whereas sunshine,absolute humidity,and temperature are the factors influencing Aedes albopictus density.更多还原