【摘要】 中国学术界和政策研究部门普遍认为实施增值税转型能够刺激投资,促进经济增长,但没有充分认识到这个转型也会扭曲资本与劳动相对价格,产生资本对劳动的替代效应,对就业造成负面影响。而过去用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型研究中国增值税转型的文献,大多假设中国是处在劳动和资本充分就业的新古典主义框架下,忽视了这个替代作用。和以往研究不同,本文考虑了中国的特殊国情、要素市场和宏观经济形势,设置了一个凯恩斯和剩余劳动力状况下的宏观闭合的CGE模型,在此框架下模拟增值税转型对于宏观经济与就业的政策效应。本研究发现,增值税转型对于实际GDP的刺激非常有限,却可能造成多至444万人数的新增失业。在同样的减税成本下,如果采取无歧视减税政策,即将原生产型增值税税率向下普调2%,会同时增加就业、更大程度地刺激整体经济和提高居民福利水平。在中国国情下,无歧视减税政策比增值税转型更优选。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is commonly considered by most scholars and previous literatures that the VAT tax reform from the production type to consumption type will promote economic growth and benefit the Chinese economy. However, this change in the VAT tax system would also cause a distortion in the relative factor prices, causing substituting labor with capital, and creating a negative impact on the labor market and employment. Our analysis based on a CGE model with a Keynesian macroeconomic closure and flexible endogenous investment finds that the VAT tax change in China would result in a very minor increase in GDP (0.128%) but a great loss of employment of 4.44 million. An alternative policy of a uniform VAT tax rate cut for both labor and fixed capital consumption by 2% at the same government budgetary cost will lead to a much better outcome in employment and GDP growth.更多还原