【摘要】 以水库、堤防等诸防洪单元的失事概率、溃决损失分析为基础,计算其在洪水情况下的失事风险;而后考虑各防洪单元间的相互影响,建立全流域范围的洪灾风险分析模型。基于价值工程理论,综合考虑各防洪单元的加固成本、风险降低程度等因素,提出流域防洪工程的加固优先排序,为工程实施决策提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the failure probability and break loss analysis of reservoirs,dikes and other flood control units,the paper calculates their corresponding failure risk in flood,and then proposes a basin-wide flood risk analysis model with consideration of the mutual influence among different units.Based on the Value Engineering theories with comprehensive consideration of reinforcement costs,degree of risk reduction and other factors,the paper proposes a priority list for basin reinforcement projects to offer reference for engineering decision-making.更多还原