【摘要】 中国持有约1.4万亿美元美国金融资产,近90%为政府担保债券。如果美国继续巨额财政赤字和宽松货币政策,汇率政策调整及储备货币地位丧失引发美元贬值的风险将上升。未来几年美元对外实际价值下降的可能性较低,利率风险与以往美国经济衰退期接近,股市波动影响较大。中国所持美元资产的风险短期内来自市场波动,长期依赖于美国财政及货币纪律。更多还原

【Abstract】 China has a total holding of $1.4 trillion of US assets,90% of which are treasury bonds and bills and secured agency bonds.If the US continues its expansionary fiscal and monetary policies,the risk of dollar devaluation and replacement by EURO in the international reserve system will grow.While foreign exchange risk of dollar and its interest risk in the current recession are similar to those in historical recessions,the stock market shows great volatility.The risk of China′s holding of US asset in the short run relies on market volatility and in the long-term on US fiscal and monetary disciplines.更多还原