【摘要】 因降水过程存在随机性与不确定性,降水量预测是气象科学的一个难点问题.以郑州市近60 a的年降水资料为对象,采用移动平均方法和加权马尔可夫链方法对其进行降水趋势分析及预测.结果显示,2种方法预测结果相吻合,且2008年预测结果与实际一致,预测精度满足要求,为中长期降水预测提供了一个值得探索的途径.更多还原

【Abstract】 For the randomness and uncertainty of the precipitation characteristics,it is a difficult problem in meteorological science.In this paper,on the basis of nearly 60 years annual precipitation data in Zhengzhou City,using moving average and the weighted Markov chain method to analysis and forecast the precipitation trend.The result showed that the forecast results by two methods is consistent and the predictable results in 2008 comes in line with the actual value,it can meet the requirements of prediction precision,and provides a worth exploring path for mid-and-long term precipitation projections.更多还原