【摘要】 根据短生命周期产品的特征调整BASS扩散模型,并将其应用于短生命周期产品的需求预测,同时考虑产品需求对无形变质和短缺拖后量的影响,进而建立短生命周期产品多周期订货模型。通过算例分析获得短生命周期产品的成熟期开始时间和持续时间,进而求订货次数和订货量,给出多周期最优订货策略。数据实验结果显示基于BASS需求函数的库存控制模型可以提高需求预测精确度,有效降低库存成本,对企业库存控制具有指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 A multi-period ordering model of short life cycle products was proposed,and the BASS forecasting model was adjusted according to the characteristics of short life cycle products,and the effects of demand on value deterioration and backorder.The starting time and durable time of the products’ mature time,the order times and order quantity were obtained from the numerical experiment,then the optimal ordering policy was proposed.The numerical experiment shows that the inventory control model based on BASS forecasting model can improve the prediction accuracy of demand and reduce the total inventory cost and it is constructive for practical inventory control.更多还原