【摘要】 采用多因子综合相关概率法、多参数点聚折线法,对宁夏川区2003～2008年汛期160个暴雹天气个例进行了统计分析,找出了多普勒雷达识别宁夏川区强对流天气的定量综合预报指标。结果表明,综合指标达到2.8时,识别冰雹、暴雨等强对流天气的成功率达87.1%。更多还原

【Abstract】 The multi-factor integrated correlation probability method and the multi-parameter dot pitch line method are used to analyze 160 hailstorm cases occurred in the plain region of Ningxia in flood season from 2003 to 2008. The quantitative comprehensive forecast index of severe convection weather in the plain region of Ningxia discriminated by Doppler Radar was found. The result shows that the success rate of identification of hail,heavy rain and other severe convective weather could reach to 87.1% while the comprehensive forecast index reaches 2.8.更多还原