【摘要】 依据近50年来博斯腾湖流域开都河大山口水文站径流数据和8个气象台站的气温、降水、积雪融水资料,并借助相邻流域天山1号冰川物质平衡资料,对气候变化背景下冰川和积雪融水对开都河径流量及博湖水位的贡献率进行了诊断分析。通过多元线性拟合法和偏相关分析法研究表明,1号冰川物质平衡与大山口水文站年径流量具有显著反相关关系,相关系数-0.28,但开都河年径流量变化并不能完全由冰川融水解释,降水和积雪融水的影响也非常重要,它们与大山口年径流的偏相关系数分别为0.57和0.40,超过99.9%和99%置信度水平。气温、降水、积雪融水拟合年径流与观测年径流的相关系数达0.63,超过99.9%置信度水平。各季节分析表明,春、秋季的降水和气温对径流具有显著影响,偏相关系数分别为0.52和0.37;夏季主要是冰川和积雪融水对径流的影响,其中积雪融水与径流的偏相关系数达0.51。夏季是一年中径流最大的季节,其变化主导着年径流量的变化,因此冰雪融水作为博斯腾湖的入湖水源,对博斯腾湖水位变化的影响不容忽视。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impacts of melting of glacier and snow on the runoff of the Kaidu River and Bosten Lake’s water level during the past 50 years were investigated by using the mass balance data of No.1 glacier,the runoff data from the Dashankou Hydrology Station,and observed data from the meteorological stations within the drainage area.Based on the statistical analysis of multivariate linear regression and the partial correlation,the research indicates that there is significant positive correlation between mass balance of No.1 glacier and annual runoff of the Kaidu River,but it can not explain all the changes of runoff.Analysis via partial correlation indicates that precipitation and snowmelt both have significant impact on runoff,and the coefficients are 0.57 and 0.40,respectively.The correlation coefficient between the fitting value of runoff from annual air temperature,precipitation,snowmelt and observed runoff reaches 0.63,which is far beyond 99.9% significant level.Analyses based on seasonal data reveal that precipitation and air temperature are,respectively,the main climatological factors influencing runoff in spring and autumn,and the partial correlation coefficients are 0.52 and 0.37,respectively.However,the impacts of glacier and snowmelt on runoff mainly occur in summer,which is the season of maximum runoff in the four seasons.The partial correlation coefficient between summer snowmelt and runoff is 0.51.As a result,the contribution of glacier and snowmelt to runoff in the drainage of Bosten Lake should be ignored by no means.更多还原