【摘要】 在搜集整理1991-2009年19年的相关统计年鉴数据和实际调查数据的基础上。依据现代区位论原理、重力模型原理,建立物流量指数模型,利用此模型计算出2008年中国31个省区(直辖市、自治区)之间的陆路物流量。在此基础上,分析了2008年31个省区之间的陆路物流交流状况、东北三省区(东北物流区域)与全国其他省区、物流区域之间的陆路物流交流状况,计算出通过渤海海峡跨海通道的潜在物流量。利用一元回归模型,预测了2020年、2030年、2040年、2050年中国31个省区之间的陆路物流交流量。根据预测结果,借助ArcGIS9.2软件系统,计算出2020、2030、2040、2050年通过渤海海峡跨海通道东北三省区(东北物流区域)与其他省区、物流区域的物流交流量。计算了中国物流重心移动的轨迹。在此基础上,分析了中国区域物流发展对渤海海峡跨海通道建设的影响,为渤海海峡跨海通道建设提供科学依据。结论表明,渤海海峡跨海通道的建设,使东北三省区(东北物流区域)与其他省区或物流区域的物流交流,不仅节约了大量的资金成本,还节约了大量的时间成本,进而节约了大量的动力资源,其潜在的无形中的效益是巨大的。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper presents the background and significance of the research.The data used in this study was mainly collected from 1991-2009 Statistical Yearbooks and the actual survey.The logistics volume index model has been established on the basis of modern regional theory and gravity model theory.By using the model,the land logistics volume of 31 provinces of China in 2008 is calculated.Then the situations of land logistics interflow among 31 provinces and between the three northeastern provinces (logistics regions of Northeast China) and other provinces are analyzed.The potential logistics volume through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway is also calculated.With the unary linear regression model,land logistics interflow volume among the 31 provinces in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 is predicted.According the logistics interflow volume between the three northeastern provinces and other provinces through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway in 2020,2030,2040 and 2050 is calculated with Arcgis 9.2 software system.On this basis,the paper analyzes the influence of the development of China’s regional logistics flow on the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway.Results show that the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway can strengthen the logistics exchange volume between the three provinces in Northeast China and other provinces/other logistics regions,which saves capital and time as well as energy resources to a large extent,hence its potential benefits are enormous.更多还原