【摘要】 水资源短缺风险评估是当今风险研究中的热点问题之一。然而,区域内部差异性使得区域尺度水资源短缺风险相比城市尺度更为复杂。本文构建了由水资源供给保障率、水资源保障可靠性、水资源利用率和水资源利用效率4项指标构成的区域尺度水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系,给出了定量计算方法,并在京津唐地区进行了实例研究。结果表明,2020年北京、天津、承德、张家口为"低风险",秦皇岛为"中风险",唐山、廊坊为"高风险"。京津唐地区水资源短缺风险防范对策应以节约用水、加强非常规水源利用为主,并加强区域内部调节,适度增加唐山等地的分水量。在廊坊市,应考虑降低复种指数减少农业用水需求。区域水资源短缺风险评估与决策体系能够直观反映区域水资源风险和规避风险的能力,揭示区域水资源短缺问题的特征,从而能更好地服务于水资源管理决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water scarcity risk assessment is a research hotspot worldwide.Regional scale risk assessment is more complex than that at a city scale because of the internal differences.A water scarcity risk assessment and decision-making system as established at a regional level in this article,which constituted by four indexes,i.e.the demand satisfaction index,the demand reliability index,the rate of water resources utilization,and water-use efficiency.A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region was conducted.The results show that the water scarcity risk level of Beijing,Tianjin,Chengde and Zhangjiakou is lower in 2020,better than the present situations.The risk level of Qinhuangdao is moderate,and that of Tangshan and Langfang is high.Saving water and unconventional water use should be wildely adopted in this region.Besides,water supply to Tangshan should be increased to reduce the water scarcity risk.In Langfang,agricultural water demand should be decreased by reducing the multiple cropping indexes.This system can directly reflect the probability of water scarcity and the capacity to avoid risks.Reasonable water resource management decision-making can be made based on this study because the characteristics of regional water scarcity are clearly revealed by the four indexes.更多还原