【摘要】 为加强长江中游浅区河段的交通安全预警管理,提出基于船舶流概念的内河船舶运行规律分析方法,采集2008—2009年荆州长江大桥船舶交通流量观测数据进行实证研究.参考国家标准,使用双侧检验的方法对泊松分布参数进行假设检验.结果表明:荆州长江大桥水域船舶在短间隔时间内进入桥区的概率分布符合泊松分布.更多还原

【Abstract】 Inland waterway vessel traffic flow was discussed by using the statistic data during the year of 2008-2009 in Jingzhou Yangtze river bridge,and thereby the arriving distribution model was proposed based on concept of vessel traffic flow to strengthen the transportation safety early-warning management in the shallow water channel.In accordance with the statistical interpretation of data,the parameter of arriving distribution model was examined.Results show that the probability distribution of the arriving distribution model fits Passion distribution in short interval time.更多还原