【摘要】 特许期的确定,是BOT项目中政府与私人投资集团谈判的主要内容之一。基于实物期权理论,将政府担保看作看跌期权并利用蒙特卡罗模拟计算了政府担保的期权价值,建立了引入政府担保价值的特许期决策模型,将其应用到交通运输BOT项目决策算例中。计算结果表明,与传统的NPV方法相比,考虑政府担保的期权价值后,私人投资集团可以在较短的特许期内获得同样的预期收益,这就为双方的特许期谈判提供了更宽广的决策空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 The determination of concession term is one of the main contents during the negotiation between the government and private investment group in BOT project. This paper on the basis of real option theory,considers the guarantee of government as a put option and value the guarantee use Monte Carlo simulation,establishes a concession term decision model including government guarantee option value,and then apply this model into a transportation BOT project. Through comparing and analyzing with traditional NPV method,the result shows that the project can acquire same expected return in shorter concession term when take the guarantee value into consideration,and provides a broader decision space for both sides during the concession term negotiation.更多还原