【摘要】 利用常规观测资料、逐小时自动站资料、FY2-2C卫星资料和MICAPS3提供的最新Physic资料,对2009年5月9～10日山东省西北部的大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明,此次大暴雨过程是由高空槽、中低层切变线及西南气流、地面低压共同影响产生的。在大暴雨开始前的1～5d内,从单站要素场上可以看出,热力、动力、能量就开始在鲁西北聚集,形成了强的不稳定形势;当有冷空气扩散南下时,在适宜的动力条件、地面低压、低空急流等条件的触发下,大暴雨天气发生了,它的落区在高空急流轴的右后方和低空急流轴的左前方。从卫星云图上可以清楚地看到,MCS是造成此次大暴雨的直接原因。同时,大暴雨开始和结束的时间与垂直速度、水汽通量散度等物理量有很好的对应关系,为此类强降水的预报提供了有利的参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 An analysis on the heavy rainfall in northwest Shandong from 9 to 10 May 2009 was performed with the routine-observational data,hourly data of automated weather station,FY-2Csatellite data and the physic data provided by MICAPS3.The results showed that the heavy rainfall event was caused by joint influences of upper-level troughs,middle-low-level shears,southwest jets and ground cyclone.1-5 days before the heavy rainfall,it is found that the thermal energy,power and energy had accumulated in northwest Shandong and formed the strong unstable situation.When the cold air went southward,under the suitable dynamic condition,ground pressurecondition and low-level jet stream triggering,the heavy rainfall had occurred.The heavy rainfall occured at the right rear of upper-level jet axis and the left front of low-level jet axis.From the satellite cloud picture,it could be clearly seen that the heavy rain was directly caused by MCS.At the same time,the heavy rain had the very good corresponding relationships with the vertical velocity,the water vapor flux divergence and so on.These had provided advantageous reference for the forecast of strong precipitation.更多还原