【摘要】 本文论述了4万亿经济刺激方案出台的现实背景,给出了我国宏观政策与美国金融危机对中国经济影响的作用机理。基于对4万亿投资的具体分解,利用投入产出闭模型定量测算获得,4万亿投资对我国GDP的拉动总效应为64489亿元,并详细论述了投资对我国GDP拉动具有六年的时滞效应特征。最后对中国经济未来的发展趋势进行了预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes the background of China’s four-trillion economic stimulus plan. Then a mechanism analysis of how China’s macro-policy and America’s financial crisis affect China’s economy is followed. Based on concrete decomposition of the fourtrillion investment,with input-output partial-closed model technique,the paper quantitatively estimates that the gross effect of fourtrillion investments on China’s GDP is 6.4489 trillion yuan. This paper also discusses the six-year time lag effect of GDP growth from investment. Future trend of China’s economy is forecasted in the end.更多还原