【摘要】 随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立以及"早期收获"计划的实施,双方农产品贸易条件不断改善,贸易额大幅增加,总体呈现出较强的资源-市场互补性格局,但双方进出口格局不对等,中国对东盟出口目的国分散,而进口来源国相对集中。另外,中国对东盟的农产品贸易逆差增大,长江以北地区获益,而江南地区则受到冲击。当前中国-东盟农产品贸易格局的地缘经济与政治影响主要包括四个方面:①增进了双方经济发展的活力;②为双方走向地缘经济一体化打下基础;③带动次区域经济发展,促进了区域经济的极化和地区性中心城市的成长,为地缘政治运作提供支持;④从长期来看,农产品贸易的不对等格局有碍于双方长期经济政治战略的持续,对中国有负面影响。因此,农产品贸易是双方建立面向和平繁荣战略伙伴关系的具体行动之一,但全面战略伙伴关系的建立显然还需要双方在农产品贸易之外寻求更多方面的努力与合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the establishment of China-ASEAN(Association of South East Asian Nations) Free Trade Area and the implementation of "Early Harvest" program,agriculture has played a much more important role in the trade and cooperation between the two sides.The authors performed a quantitative study on China-ASEAN agricultural trade patterns.It was suggested that the amount of agricultural trade between China and ASEAN countries increased steadily at an average rate of 26.1% per year from 2001 to 2007,with showing an increasing trade deficit for China.It was also found that there existed a strong complementary pattern of resource-market and some trade imbalance in volume and category between the two sides.It was noted that the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN countries benefits the agriculture in the north of the Yangtze River in China,however,bringing adverse effects on the south of the Yangtze River.The geo-economic and geopolitical impacts of the agricultural trade pattern between China and ASEAN countries include:1) It enables China and ASEAN to develop a broader and deeper economic trade in the future,benefiting the two sides by providing resources and markets,respectively;2)It provides the potential to further establish a kind of Geo-integrated economy between the two sides;3)It can greatly drive sub-region economic development over China and ASEAN,spur the polarization of regional economy and contribute to the growth of regional central cities,which will provide an effective platform for geopolitical cooperation;4) The trade imbalance in volume and category between the both sides would greatly hamper the sustainability of economic and political strategies between the two sides in the long run.In a word,it is believed that the role of the agricultural trade between the two sides is being changed from previously satisfying respective demands to promoting a more comprehensive mutual cooperation.The agricultural trade is one of concrete actions taken to build a strategic partnership of peace and prosperity between the two sides.However,it is apparent that the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership requires both sides to make constructive progress in cooperation for a broader range of fields except agricultural trade.更多还原