【摘要】 土地盐碱化作为一种地质环境灾害,严重威胁生态、经济和社会的可持续发展。有关盐碱地形成机理、动态变化监测的研究已经较多,但盐碱地演化预测方面的研究却鲜见报道。论文以松嫩平原西部盐碱化典型地区通榆县为例,利用RS和GIS技术分析了区域内1992~2001年土地盐碱化演化特征,并在此基础上利用条件约束空间分析测算模型对全县未来49年内的土地盐碱化演化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:到2050年,通榆县盐碱地总量将达到380581.4 hm2,占全县土地总面积的44.80%。其中,轻、中、重度盐碱地在盐碱地总量中所占比例将调整为25.12%、30.46%和44.41%。高、中覆盖度草地、耕地和水库将是未来新增盐碱地的主要来源。条件约束空间分析测算模型为区域土地盐碱化预测提供了一种新思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a kind of geological-environmental disaster,land saline-alkailization is threatening of sustainable development in ecology,economy and society.Studies related to the forming mechanism and the monitoring of the dynamic change of saline-alkailized land increasingly emerged over the past two decades.However,the prediction of saline-alkailized land in the future scenario has been less reported due to the complicated influencing factors causing land saline-alkailization.Songnen Plain is one of the three largest saline-alkailized areas in China.In order to explore a method which could be possible for the prediction of saline-alkailized land,the Tongyu County located in the western Songnen Plain was selected as the study area in this research.We firstly extracted the various land use types with focus on saline-alkailized land using remote sensing technology based on TM image in 1992 and ETM image in 2001.Secondly,the topology and overlay operations were implemented for the two land use maps of 1992 and 2001 in ARC/INFO 9.2 to generate the land use change matrix during 1992 to 2001.Finally,the saline-alkailized land in Tongyu County in 2050 was predicted using the condition-restricted spatial analysis model for measuring the land use change with the consideration of the characteristic of land use change over 1992 to 2001.The results revealed that the saline-alkailized land in Tongyu County in 2050 will be 380581.4 ha covering about 44.80% of the total area of Tongyu County.Of these saline-alkailized lands,the portion of the low-,medium-,and high saline-alkailized lands will be 24.54,29.04 and 44.39%,respectively.The results also revealed that,the newly increased saline-alkailized land would be composed of high-and medium-covered grassland,cultivated land,and reservoir.In conclusion,this study demonstrated the possibility of prediction of saline-alkailized land in the future land use scenario with condition-restricted spatial analysis model for measuring land use change.However,the performance of the model in predicting the saline-alkailized land in the future scenario needs to be further examined,as it assumed that the developing trend of the saline-alkailized land in the study area in the future is similar to the previous one.And therefore,the model should be carefully implemented and adjusted if the extreme natural and human disturbances occurred.更多还原