【摘要】 为模拟节约土地资源的城市可持续发展形态,以珠江三角洲城市快速发展的东莞市为例,运用元胞自动机(CA)、地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)从历史数据中建立城市空间扩展的CA,将土地资源节约利用程度与城市用地空间聚集程度相结合,在评价城市用地空间聚集程度的基础上,通过不断增加离市中心距离权重和离公路距离权重,调整CA的参数,模拟节约土地资源,城市用地在空间上紧凑布局的城市形态,并以调整参数的模型(离市中心距离权重为-0.006,离公路权重为-0.024)模拟结果为基础,分析了实现城市用地空间上紧凑发展,土地资源节约利用的政策:到2010年,东莞市离市中心27km范围内的适宜地区可规定为鼓励城市发展区,27~34km范围内的适宜地区可规定为限制性城市发展区,其它地区为非城市发展区。更多还原

【Abstract】 Cellular Automata(CA) has been largely used to simulate actual urban development and for planning urban forms.This paper discusses how to simulate compact urban forms for saving land resources by using CA,geographical information systems(GIS) and remote sensing(RS).Urban morphology is an important element in urban planning,and compact urban forms can consume less land.As a case study in Dongguan City,Guangdong Province,urban development CA was first built by integrating GIS and RS.Then,the weights of CA variables were adjusted dynamically for simulating compact urban patterns based on evaluating aggregation index.The aggregation index,which can be calculated by using Fragstats 3.3 software,was used to evaluate compact extent for urban landuse.The higher the aggregation index,the urban forms become more compact.Different groups of weights will play specific roles in controlling urban forms.If weight of road increases,it will produce road-based urban development.If weight of city centre increases,it will produce city-centre-based urban development.When adjusting weights,first,the initial weights are set to the minimum value(-0.0001) for all the variables.Second,the absolute weight for the variable of urban centre will be increased and urban land development will be around urban centre.Third,the absolute weight for the variable of road will be increased and a higher amount of urban land development around road will be based on the second step.The urban forms become more compact.Based on the principle,weights of city centre and road are set to-0.006 and-0.024 respectively,and compact urban forms of Dongguan City are simulated from 1988 to 2004,and the compact urban form of 2010 is predicted too.The result indicates that CA is one of the best tools for simulating compact urban land use patterns for saving land resources.更多还原