【摘要】 综合应用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型,分析了江苏省资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。计算了江苏省1985~2006年的生态足迹及能源足迹、耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹,在此基础上,对GDP与各种生态足迹之间的长期均衡关系与因果关系进行计量分析。结果表明:GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间存在协整关系,且总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹是GDP的单向Granger原因,林地足迹与GDP之间是双向的Granger原因。并建立了GDP与总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹之间的误差修正模型,利用模型分析发现短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到91.84%。研究结论揭示了江苏省的经济增长方式属于资源消耗型,总生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹、林地足迹是影响江苏省经济增长的主要原因。因此,必须合理利用资源,加强生态环境保护,调整产业结构,发展循环经济,以实现江苏省资源、环境、经济之间的可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on theories of the ecological footprint,co-integration,Error Correction Model,the relationship between resource consumption and economic development was analyzed.The ecological footprint and energy,arable land,pasture,forestland,water area and residential land footprints have been calculated from 1985 to 2006 in this paper.The relationship between Jiangsu’s GDP and the ecological footprint was researched in detail.The empirical research showed that firstly,a co-integration relationship existed between GDP and the ecological footprint,energy,arable land and forestland footprint.Secondly,the ecological footprint,energy and arable land footprint were a unilateral Granger cause of economic development and forestland footprint was a bidirectional Granger cause of economic development.Thirdly,the Error Correction Model between GDP and the ecological footprint,energy,arable land and forestland footprint was given and the range of short term equilibrium close to long term equilibrium was 91.84%.Consequently,the above conclusions implied that the economic development in Jiangsu relied on consumption of substantial resources in a long run and the ecological footprint,energy,arable land and forestland footprint were causes of the economic development.Therefore,using resources rationally,strengthening eco-environment protection,adjusting industrial structure and developing circular economy were the key to realize the sustainable development of Jiangsu province.更多还原