【摘要】 可能-满意度方法是从系统目标实现的可能度与满意度角度出发,分别建立可能度函数与满意度函数,并且利用一定的并合技术形成综合的可能-满意度的一种多目标决策方法。由于承载力具有相对意义,取决于自然资源的支撑能力和人们追求的生活标准,因此,可能-满意度法可用于承载力研究。文章选取乌海市作为研究区域,选用可能-满意度法,通过构建乌海市人口承载力的指标体系以及可能度和满意度函数,对乌海市未来人口承载力进行分析。结果认为:不同人口规模将面临的资源环境以及社会经济问题是不同的。当总人口小于49×104人时,大气质量问题相对严重;当总人口大于49×104人时,水资源供需矛盾上升为主要问题。当总人口继续超过63×104人时,就业问题比资源环境问题更显严峻。综合各种目标的可能-满意度,乌海市2020年的人口承载力以51×104人为宜,对应的可能-满意度为0.61。更多还原

【Abstract】 P-S model is one of the methods of multi-objective decision,which can be used to describe the overall situation of a given system by synthesized degree derived from a series of formulations of probability and satisfaction of system targets.Carrying capacity,according to its definition,is relative,and decided by supply of natural resources and living standard people desired.So calculation of carrying capacity is related to analysis of both probable supply of natural resources and satisfied living standard.This is the background that P-S model as an approach is valid for carrying capacity.Wuhai city is a resource-based city in west Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.It is located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River and at southeast edge of Ulanbuh Desert.The population of Wuhai city reached 470 thousands in 2006 and total area of 1754 km2.Its annual average rainfall is 158mm,and evaporation 3249mm.So the main characteristic of natural environment is drought.Even though next to the Yellow River,it was still faced with the fresh water shortage problem in recent years.In addition,both its air quality and fresh water quality are exacerbating with its economic growth.In order to promote sustainable development and rational birth control in Wuhai city,carrying capacity research is an important program.This article sets up an indicators system to evaluate carrying capacity in Wuhai city after analyzing some key objectives of development,such as economy,employment,air quality,fresh water quality,fresh water equilibrium,crowded life and family size.It also lists critical situations of each indicator and principles for the formulation of probability and satisfaction under critical situations respectively.With the P-S model,the following conclusions are drawn.First,different population size will witness different problems.If total population is less than 490 thousands,air pollution would be relatively serious.Otherwise,if the total population is more than 490 thousands,to keep the fresh water equilibrium would become the mostly hard objective,and if the total population continues to grow to exceed 630 thousands,unemployment problem would be more serious than the natural resources problems.Second,too small size of population will not be fine due to the heavy cost of birth control and weak market effect from population.However,the pattern of first development and second solution is not adapted to sustainable development in Wuhai city,because its carrying capacity of natural resources is smaller than that of economic development.Finally,the human carrying capacity in Wuhai city in 2020 is recommended as 510 thousands by the P-S model.更多还原