【摘要】 伴随着快速工业化、城镇化以及农业现代化进程,中国经济取得飞速发展,但中国经济的高速发展是以资源尤其是耕地资源的过度消耗和环境的不断恶化为代价的。论文在分析经济发展和耕地资源利用态势基础上,从现实和理论两个视角剖析耕地资源减少的危害、理论动因及保护与管理的缺陷,进而引出弥补管理缺陷的政策走向:土地督察制度的建立;并明确其历史使命:消减耕地过度性损失。然后,在构建模型测算耕地损失基础上,考察督察视角下不同区域理性耕地保护目标。结果表明:其一,我国1989~2006年之间耕地资源过度性损失达1 930 742.27 hm2;其二,倘若延续当前的经济发展和生态建设态势,即使督察部门消减耕地过度性损失,2020年的耕地红线1.20×108hm2必将在2009年底突破,粮食不安全将是"十二五"乃至以后时期的主要特征;其三,倘若国家暂缓生态退耕,经济发展即使延续过去占用耕地态势,2020年以前中国粮食处于安全状态;其四,在国家暂缓生态退耕前提下,从土地督察的历史使命判断,2020年全国理性耕地保护目标至少为1.21×108hm2。最后,提出注重内涵发展和暂缓生态退耕等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization process,Chinese economy has achieved fast development.But the high development of Chinese economy is at the expense of over-consumption of resources especially the cropland and constant environmental deterioration.Especially in the last ten years,because the cropland reduction is increasing,so it directly threats the food security and social stability.And the sustainability of Chinese economy is facing serious challenge.Though the land management system in China is most strict,the cropland has once become the focus of concern in the Chinese public policy due to excessive loss of the cropland.In this paper,based on the analysis of Chinese economic development and the cropland use situation,we analyze the harm of cropland reduction and theoretical cause,as well as the defects of the land protection and management from the theoretical and practical perspectives.And furthermore,the policy trend of remedying management defects is proposed.The trend is to establish the land supervision system,make clear its historical mission and finally reduce the excessive loss of the cropland.Then the models to calculate the cropland loss are constructed and the reasonable goal of the cropland in various districts are investigated.The results show that: firstly,the excessive loss of the cropland is 1 930 742.27 ha from 1986 to 2006;secondly,if the economic and ecological construction is still continuing under the current development situation,the cropland red line of 1.20×108 ha in 2020 will be broken through in 2009 even if the land supervision department supervises and controls the excessive loss.So the food no-security is the main characteristic during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period and even the period afterwards;thirdly,if the government postpones defarming for ecological purpose,and even the economic development is still at the present speed of occupying the cropland,the Chinese food will be still secure before 2020;fourthly,on the premise of postponing defarming,judging from the historical mission on land supervision,the target of rational protected cropland will be 1.21×108 ha at least in 2020.So finally,some suggestions are put forward to protect the cropland such as system of land supervision,defarming postponement and so on.更多还原