【摘要】 公路工程造价由于受诸多不确定因素的影响,这些因素之间又存在错综复杂的关系,相互依赖又相互制约,因而具有高度的不确定性,即存在风险。正是由于风险因素之间的复杂关系,本文综合运用灰色系统理论和层次分析法,建立了灰色多层次评价模型,以评价公路建设中造价的风险,此方法具有计算简便、评价精度高等优点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Influenced by a variety of factors,the cost of highway projects is highly uncertain,and this means a great deal of risk exists in the cost estimating process.In fact,there are anfractuous relationships exist in these factors.Based on these relationships,a new method called Grey System Theory with AHP is introduced to analyze the complex cost estimating process.In this paper,the present situation of the construction market in China is considered in the background provided by the relevant literature of home and abroad,and a hierarchical structure index system is established to assess risk factors for the cost of highway projects.Based on this hierarchical structure index system and a project case study,the paper presents the modeling mechanism and Grey System calculation steps in details.According to the final relative weighting ratio of respective risk factors calculated by the Grey System method,the risk factors that need special consideration in the cost of a highway project can be identified.更多还原